This article from The Seattle Times is pretty thought-provoking. It's also a real attention grabber, starting with the first two paragraphs:
In the next several decades, this country is expected to experience
one of the greatest transfers of wealth from one generation to the next
that has ever taken place anywhere.
Estimates of how much money people will leave behind run as high as
$150 trillion, but a more widely used number is $41 trillion. Of that,
a number of economists think $25 trillion will be transferred directly
to heirs. And much of it will be left to members of the baby-boom
generation.
What might be the effects of this great transfer of wealth? I've put on my Faith Popcorn hat, and compiled a partial list:
1. More money passing from parents to baby boomers probably means a pretty huge move from the income-generating investments favored by many seniors (CDs, bonds) into stocks and stock-based mutual funds. (Of course, this assumes that inherited money will be invested, instead of spent on a vacation home or a big-screen TV.)
2. More money passing to heirs means a lot more probate (unless decedents have converted their property into some non-probate form). Are our probate courts equipped to deal with this? Cook County certainly doesn't appear to be. The Cook County Clerk's website directory lists 13 probate judges, but many of them deal with guardianship matters; since the recent retirements of two judges who handled deceased estates (Judges Cusack and Siracusa), I've noticed that attorneys have a much longer wait in order to be heard.
3. More probate will lead to more probate-related litigation. According to the survey discussed in the article, "boomers regard the memory of their parents
and their parents' values as the most important features of a legacy." You'll forgive me if I don't believe that for a minute.
4. Of course, one side effect of more probate-related litigation might be a greater emphasis on resolving disputes quickly and at a reasonable price. It's better to pay a mediator or arbitrator for one day than to pay attorneys for years on end, so we'll probably see an increase in the use of ADR (alternative dispute resolution) for inheritance battles.
5. More money passing to heirs also means more discussion about estate planning and probate issues. But will that only happen among baby boomers, or will the discussion cross generational lines? One of the article's main points is about the lack of communication between parents and children regarding financial matters (including estate planning matters) -- that could lead to trouble if an uncommunicative parent (a) doesn't do any estate planning or (b) does estate planning in a way that creates discord (decides to leave unequal amounts to his or her children).
6. I would suspect that more discussion about estate planning and probate issues among baby boomers is going to create a lot more interest in estate planning. It could be that estate planning today is at the same point as financial planning was in the early 80's. If people take to estate planning in the same way, we could see a repeat of the "personal investor revolution," with some of the same advantages (lowering of costs, increasing amount of information) and disadvantages (do-it-yourselfers).
7. As more and more people inherit property, the movement to eliminate the estate tax is going to become stronger and stronger. This will especially be the case if the estate tax exclusion amount isn't raised and/or we continue to have uncertainty about how the tax will work in the future.